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Orlando MagicFranz Wagner
#22 · F · 6-10 · 220 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2021 · Rd 1, Pick 8
- College
- Michigan
- Country
- Germany
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 22.7 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 21.5 PTSPointsCool underFireFactor 20/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency62supports it
Projection
19.2 PTS(×0.90 context)
L5 21.8 · L10 22.8 · med 21.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 18.0 · ceil 27.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season26 games
50%over
13 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–68%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 20/26 | ||
| 73% | 19/26 | ||
| 62% | 16/26 | ||
| 21.5Current | 50% | 13/26 | |
| 42% | 11/26 | ||
| 42% | 11/26 | ||
| 38% | 10/26 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%8/13Low
Away38%5/13Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/4Low
1 day71%10/14Medium
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days0%0/2Low
Last matchup — @ BOS
Apr 12, 2026
20thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
BOS allows 13.6 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 158 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Franz Wagner has gone over 21.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. BOS has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 20th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.