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Oklahoma City ThunderIsaiah Joe
#11 · G · 6-4 · 165 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2020 · Rd 2, Pick 49
- College
- Arkansas
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 9.2 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutIsaiah Joe isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Hip Bruise
- Est. return:
- Nov 9, 2026
Joe is still bothered by the right hip contusion he suffered against the 76ers on Oct. 25, and it will cause him to miss a sixth consecutive game Sunday. He'll have another chance to return to action Monday against Washington.
Verdict
vs 8.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency40neutral
Projection
9.6 PTS
L5 9.2 · L10 9.2 · med 8.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.6 · ceil 12.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 8.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
Last matchup — @ MIA
Oct 23, 2026
4thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
MIA allows 13.6 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 31 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Isaiah Joe has gone over 8.5 PTS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 4th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 8.5 PTS- No-vig fair (over)
- 46.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 53.5%
Best Over
BetMGM+100
-6.9% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-135
-6.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+9.0%
Our model puts the over at 55.5% vs the market's no-vig 46.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.