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Indiana PacersJalen Slawson
#18 · F · 6-7 · 215 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 2, Pick 54
- College
- Furman
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 11.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 11.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency8argues against it
Projection
10.5 PTS(×1.02 context)
L5 12.8 · L10 11.0 · med 12.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.4 · ceil 16.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 11.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
1 day100%2/2Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — vs DET
Apr 12, 2026
7thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
DET allows 14.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 154 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jalen Slawson has gone over 11.5 PTS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 7th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.