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Chicago BullsJalen Smith
#25 · F-C · 6-8 · 244 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Mar 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2020 · Rd 1, Pick 10
- College
- Maryland
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 12.7 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 13.5 PTSPointsCool underFireFactor 36/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency71supports it
Projection
13.6 PTS(×1.03 context)
L5 13.8 · L10 13.1 · med 13.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 12.0 · ceil 14.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season22 games
41%over
9 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–61%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 19/22 | ||
| 82% | 18/22 | ||
| 64% | 14/22 | ||
| 13.5Current | 41% | 9/22 | |
| 14% | 3/22 | ||
| 5% | 1/22 | ||
| 5% | 1/22 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home36%5/14Medium
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day45%5/11Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days29%2/7Low
Last matchup — vs HOU
Mar 23, 2026
6thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
HOU allows 14.6 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 176 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Smith has gone over 13.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 41% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 6th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.