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New Orleans PelicansJeremiah Fears
#0 · G · 6-3 · 190 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2025 · Rd 1, Pick 7
- College
- Oklahoma
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 19.5 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 18.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 32% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency35argues against it
Projection
29.5 PTS(×1.10 context)
L5 31.8 · L10 24.2 · med 19.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 14.0 · ceil 21.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season26 games
46%over
12 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–65%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 19/26 | ||
| 62% | 16/26 | ||
| 62% | 16/26 | ||
| 18.5Current | 46% | 12/26 | |
| 38% | 10/26 | ||
| 31% | 8/26 | ||
| 15% | 4/26 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home46%6/13Low
Away46%6/13Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day44%4/9Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days46%6/13Low
Last matchup — @ MIN
Apr 12, 2026
13thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
MIN allows 14.0 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 223 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jeremiah Fears has gone over 18.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 46% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 13th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.