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Orlando MagicJonathan Isaac
#1 · F · 6-10 · 230 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Mar 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 6
- College
- Florida State
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 4.0 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionJonathan Isaac isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 10, 2026
Isaac was assigned to Osceola but recalled again on the same day while he continued his recovery from a knee issue. Having yet to play this season, the forward is not expected to find a meaningful role in the short term, and he'll likely appear on the bench when he's available again.
Verdict
vs 3.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
3.1 PTS(×1.06 context)
L5 1.6 · L10 3.4 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 6.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season29 games
59%over
17 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–74%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 24/29 | ||
| 76% | 22/29 | ||
| 69% | 20/29 | ||
| 3.5Current | 59% | 17/29 | |
| 34% | 10/29 | ||
| 24% | 7/29 | ||
| 21% | 6/29 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home73%8/11Low
Away50%9/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%2/3Low
1 day46%6/13Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days80%8/10Low
Last matchup — vs HOU
Feb 26, 2026
17thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
HOU allows 12.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jonathan Isaac has gone over 3.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 59% across the full season. HOU has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 17th-most PTS of 30 teams (12.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.