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Chicago BullsJosh Giddey
#3 · G · 6-7 · 214 lb · 31 games
Stats updated: Apr 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2021 · Rd 1, Pick 6
- College
- NBA Global Academy
- Country
- Australia
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 19.0 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Josh Giddey's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Ankle Not Specified
Chicago has focused primarily on frontcourt additions so far this offseason with their recent moves, setting up Giddey with plenty of talent around him for playmaking opportunities. Anfernee Simons (wrist) and Collin Sexton are both unrestricted free agents this summer, potentially leaving Giddey with a ton of usage on his plate in the backcourt next season.
Verdict
vs 18.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 11/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency44neutral
Projection
15.0 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 14.0 · L10 16.3 · med 17.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 15.0 · ceil 25.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season31 games
48%over
15 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–65%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 22/31 | ||
| 65% | 20/31 | ||
| 61% | 19/31 | ||
| 18.5Current | 48% | 15/31 | |
| 45% | 14/31 | ||
| 42% | 13/31 | ||
| 35% | 11/31 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home31%4/13Medium
Away61%11/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)25%1/4Low
1 day67%8/12Low
2 days0%0/4Low
3+ days60%6/10Low
Last matchup — @ SAS
Mar 30, 2026
11thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
SAS allows 14.1 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 220 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Josh Giddey has gone over 18.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 48% across the full season. SAS has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 11th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.