
Stats updated: Oct 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Justin Champagnie has gone over 20 FS in 4 of his last 5 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
The forward underwent surgery Wednesday to address a fractured foot, and the Wizards hope Champagnie will be ready to return at some time around the All-Star break in February. The likes of Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington will all be asked to help pick up the slack for the foreseeable future.
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Over 20 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
ATL allows 23.1 FS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 28 player-games
NeutralOver his last 5 games, Justin Champagnie has gone over 20 FS 4 of 5 decided times (80%) — versus 80% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 17th-most FS of 30 teams (23.1 per game). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 80%.
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.