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Memphis GrizzliesKentavious Caldwell-Pope
#3 · G · 6-5 · 204 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Feb 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2013 · Rd 1, Pick 8
- College
- Georgia
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 9.4 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Finger Surgery
After exercising his $21.6 million player option in June, Caldwell-Pope is set to join LeBron James and the 76ers for the 2026-27 campaign. Caldwell-Pope was traded from Orlando to Memphis in June 2025 and appeared in 51 regular-season games (14 starts) with the club before undergoing surgery on his right pinky finger in February. He averaged 8.4 points, 2.7 assists, 2.5 rebounds and 0.8 steals across 21.3 minutes per contest with the Grizzlies. The 33-year-old is now expected to compete with Anfernee Simons, Labaron Philon and Justin Edwards for playing time off the bench.
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
9.3 PTS(×1.04 context)
L5 7.6 · L10 10.1 · med 11.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.2 · ceil 12.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season22 games
55%over
12 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 16/22 | ||
| 59% | 13/22 | ||
| 59% | 13/22 | ||
| 9.5Current | 55% | 12/22 | |
| 45% | 10/22 | ||
| 32% | 7/22 | ||
| 14% | 3/22 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away55%6/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day38%3/8Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days60%6/10Low
Last matchup — @ DEN
Feb 11, 2026
23rdof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
DEN allows 13.7 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 240 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has gone over 9.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 23rd-most PTS of 30 teams (13.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.