Miami Heat

Keshad Johnson Points + Rebounds + Assists

Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Keshad Johnson has gone over 9.5 PRA in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arizona
Country: USA
Experience: 2 seasons

Line

Points + Rebounds + Assists · season avg 12.8 PRA

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Verdict

vs 9.5 PRAPoints + Rebounds + Assists

No readFireFactor 9/100· model 74% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it

Projection vs line74supports it

Consistency17argues against it

Projection

15.3 PRA(×1.10 context)

L5 14.4 · L10 11.5 · med 9.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 8.0 · ceil 19.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2011 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Season11 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Alternate lines — Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)

PRA over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PRA line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	82%	9/11
	82%	9/11
	73%	8/11
9.5Current	55%	6/11
	45%	5/11
	45%	5/11
	45%	5/11

Last 11 games — PRA per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 PRA by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low

1 day50%1/2Low

3+ days33%2/6Low

Last matchup — vs ATL

Apr 12, 2026

16thof 30 in PRA allowed to forwards

ATL allows 21.6 PRA per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 159 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Keshad Johnson has gone over 9.5 PRA 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 16th-most PRA of 30 teams (21.6 per game). His game-to-game PRA have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.