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Houston RocketsKevin Durant
#7 · F · 6-11 · 240 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2007 · Rd 1, Pick 2
- College
- Texas
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 19 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 27.6 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Kevin Durant's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Ankle Sprain
He also helped lead the Rockets to a 52-30 record and a playoff berth despite battling injuries late in the year. Houston made no major changes to its core during the offseason, so Durant should once again operate as the club's primary scoring option while chasing another deep postseason run.
Verdict
vs 29.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency59neutral
Projection
28.7 PTS(×1.00 context)
L5 28.4 · L10 27.7 · med 29.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 20.0 · ceil 33.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season46 games
50%over
23 over · 23 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–64%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 26/46 | ||
| 54% | 25/46 | ||
| 52% | 24/46 | ||
| 29.5Current | 50% | 23/46 | |
| 41% | 19/46 | ||
| 33% | 15/46 | ||
| 22% | 10/46 |
Situational splits
Over 29.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%6/21Medium
Away68%17/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)60%3/5Low
1 day67%10/15Medium
2 days38%3/8Low
3+ days41%7/17Medium
Last matchup — vs MIN
Apr 10, 2026
12thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
MIN allows 14.0 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 166 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kevin Durant has gone over 29.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 6.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.