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Utah JazzLauri Markkanen
#23 · F-C · 7-1 · 240 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 7
- College
- Arizona
- Country
- Finland
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 20.3 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLauri Markkanen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Wrist Sprain
- Est. return:
- Nov 10, 2026
Markkanen will miss Sunday's game due to a right wrist injury he sustained Oct. 26 against the Grizzlies. Josh Green, Josh Okogie and Brice Sensabaugh are candidates for increased roles with Markkanen sidelined.
Verdict
vs 20.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency62supports it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
19.6 PTS(×0.94 context)
L5 21.6 · L10 20.3 · med 21.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.4 · ceil 23.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 20.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
1 day80%4/5Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jaren Jackson Jr. out · Right Knee Not Specified-0.7 PTS when he sits
Without (4g)
20.0 PTS
75% over 20.5
With (3g)
20.7 PTS
33% over 20.5
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 9, 2026
25thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
MIN allows 11.1 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 27 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Lauri Markkanen has gone over 20.5 PTS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most PTS of 30 teams (11.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.