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Phoenix SunsMark Williams
#15 · C · 7-1 · 240 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 15
- College
- Duke
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 14.2 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 13.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
13.7 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 13.2 · L10 12.9 · med 11.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.0 · ceil 20.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season36 games
47%over
17 over · 19 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–63%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 25/36 | ||
| 58% | 21/36 | ||
| 56% | 20/36 | ||
| 13.5Current | 47% | 17/36 | |
| 39% | 14/36 | ||
| 39% | 14/36 | ||
| 33% | 12/36 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home30%6/20Medium
Away69%11/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day47%8/17Medium
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days53%8/15Low
Last matchup — vs HOU
Apr 7, 2026
10thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
HOU allows 13.4 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 67 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mark Williams has gone over 13.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 10th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.