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Boston CelticsNeemias Queta
#88 · C · 7-0 · 248 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2021 · Rd 2, Pick 39
- College
- Utah State
- Country
- Portugal
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 11.8 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 10.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
14.3 PTS(×1.02 context)
L5 15.0 · L10 12.9 · med 14.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.0 · ceil 16.6
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season33 games
52%over
17 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–67%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 25/33 | ||
| 67% | 22/33 | ||
| 67% | 22/33 | ||
| 10.5Current | 52% | 17/33 | |
| 45% | 15/33 | ||
| 42% | 14/33 | ||
| 39% | 13/33 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home53%8/15Low
Away50%9/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day58%7/12Low
2 days100%3/3Low
3+ days47%7/15Low
Last matchup — vs TOR
Apr 5, 2026
28thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
TOR allows 11.3 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 72 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Neemias Queta has gone over 10.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 52% across the full season. TOR has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 28th-most PTS of 30 teams (11.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.