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Denver NuggetsNikola Jokić Turnovers
Stats updated: Nov 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Nikola Jokić has gone over 3.5 TOV in 3 of his last 7 decided games (43%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- 2014 · Rd 2, Pick 41
- College
- Mega Basket
- Country
- Serbia
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Linepays more
Turnovers · season avg 3.4 TOV · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Nikola Jokić's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Sprain
The probable designation suggests Jokic is on track to play despite the elbow issue. His expected availability is a significant boost for Denver's offense, as the three-time MVP remains the team's primary facilitator and offensive centerpiece. Barring a setback, fantasy managers should anticipate his usual substantial workload.
Verdict
vs 3.5 TOVTurnoversNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 36% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)74supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.9 TOV(×0.94 context)
L5 3.2 · L10 3.4 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.2 · ceil 5.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Turnovers (TOV)
TOV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 3.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 TOV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
1 day75%3/4Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — @ HOU
Nov 10, 2026
25thof 30 in TOV allowed to centers
HOU allows 1.1 TOV per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 9 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Nikola Jokić has gone over 3.5 TOV 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 25th-most TOV of 30 teams (1.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TOV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.
More Nikola Jokić research
Nikola Jokić — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Jokić Rebounds→
Rebounds hit rates and trends.
Jokić Assists→
Assists hit rates and trends.
Jokić 3-Pointers Made→
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Jokić Steals→
Steals hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NBA Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.