Oklahoma City Thunder

Nikola Topić Rebounds

Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Nikola Topić has gone over 2.5 REB in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2024 · Rd 1, Pick 12
College: Crvena zvezda
Country: Serbia
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRebounds · season avg 3.0 REB · our line

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OutNikola Topić isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Back
Est. return:: Nov 13, 2026

Topic has yet to play during the 2026-27 campaign, and at this rate, it doesn't look like he will be on the floor anytime soon. For now, he should be considered week-to-week. The 2024 No. 12 overall pick has appeared in only 10 regular-season games throughout his career, averaging 5.2 points, 1.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists while shooting 40.0 percent from deep over 16.0 minutes per contest.

Verdict

vs 2.5 REBRebounds

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency44neutral

Matchup50neutral

Projection

2.8 REB(×0.93 context)

L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.4 · ceil 3.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Rebounds (REB)

REB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
2.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — REB per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

1 day100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ MEM

Nov 7, 2026

14thof 30 in REB allowed to guards

MEM allows 3.4 REB per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 23 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 2 games, Nikola Topić has gone over 2.5 REB 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MEM has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 14th-most REB of 30 teams (3.4 per game). His game-to-game REB have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.