Orlando Magic

Paolo Banchero Steals

Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Paolo Banchero has gone over 0.5 STL in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 1
College: Duke
Country: USA
Experience: 4 seasons

Verdict

vs 0.5 STLSteals

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 55% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.0 STL(×1.01 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2020 games

45%over

9 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%

Season50 games

52%over

26 over · 24 under

Medium confidence95% CI 39%–65%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	52%	26/50
	16%	8/50
	8%	4/50
	2%	1/50

Last 20 games — STL per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%15/25Medium

Away44%11/25Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)57%4/7Low

1 day45%10/22Medium

2 days60%3/5Low

3+ days53%8/15Low

Last matchup — @ BOS

Apr 12, 2026

30thof 30 in STL allowed to forwards

BOS allows 0.6 STL per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 158 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Paolo Banchero has gone over 0.5 STL 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 52% across the full season. BOS has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 30th-most STL of 30 teams (0.6 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.