Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry Points + Rebounds + Assists

Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Stephen Curry has gone over 37.5 PRA in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2009 · Rd 1, Pick 7
College: Davidson
Country: USA
Experience: 17 seasons

Verdict

vs 37.5 PRAPoints + Rebounds + Assists

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency59neutral

Projection

36.0 PRA(×0.97 context)

L5 35.6 · L10 37.5 · med 37.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 31.0 · ceil 46.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2020 games

55%over

11 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%

Season26 games

50%over

13 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 32%–68%

Alternate lines — Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)

PRA over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PRA line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	73%	19/26
	65%	17/26
	65%	17/26
37.5Current	50%	13/26
	46%	12/26
	42%	11/26
	42%	11/26

Last 20 games — PRA per game vs. line 37.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 37.5 PRA by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home47%7/15Low

Away55%6/11Low

Days since last game

1 day60%6/10Low

2 days50%3/6Low

3+ days44%4/9Low

Last matchup — @ DAL

Jan 22, 2026

2ndof 30 in PRA allowed to guards

DAL allows 23.2 PRA per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 210 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Stephen Curry has gone over 37.5 PRA 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 2nd-most PRA of 30 teams (23.2 per game). His game-to-game PRA have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 9.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.