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Houston RocketsSteven Adams Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Steven Adams has gone over 24.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- 2013 · Rd 1, Pick 12
- College
- Pittsburgh
- Country
- New Zealand
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 23.6 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Steven Adams's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Ankle Surgery
Adams was already viewed as out indefinitely with a Grade 3 sprain, but now he won't be able to return during the 2025-26 campaign. The veteran big man is under contract with Houston through the 2027-28 season. With Adams' year now over, Clint Capela and Dorian Finney-Smith are set to split the backup center duties behind Alperen Sengun.
Verdict
vs 24.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 14/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency59neutral
Projection
23.9 FS(×1.02 context)
L5 25.6 · L10 23.8 · med 24.9
Consistency
Steady
floor 17.7 · ceil 26.9
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 24.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
1 day33%1/3Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days67%4/6Low
Last matchup — vs NOP
Jan 18, 2026
9thof 30 in FS allowed to centers
NOP allows 32.5 FS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 75 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Steven Adams has gone over 24.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. NOP has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 9th-most FS of 30 teams (32.5 per game). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.
More Steven Adams research
Steven Adams — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Adams Rebounds→
Rebounds hit rates and trends.
Adams Assists→
Assists hit rates and trends.
Adams 3-Pointers Made→
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Adams Steals→
Steals hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NBA Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.