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Indiana PacersT.J. McConnell
#9 · G · 6-1 · 190 lb · 7 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 7 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2015
- College
- Arizona
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 10.6 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm T.J. McConnell's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Hamstring Strain
McConnell missed the first nine games of the season due to a hamstring injury, which could hold him out for Monday's contest. If he is unavailable, Quenton Jackson is expected to see an expanded role.
Verdict
vs 10.5 PTSPointsCold underFireFactor 54/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency62supports it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
10.2 PTS(×0.91 context)
L5 10.8 · L10 10.6 · med 10.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 9.2 · ceil 12.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Last 207 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Season7 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 10.5Current | 29% | 2/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day0%0/2Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
Next matchup — @ DAL
Nov 10, 2026
21stof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
DAL allows 11.6 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 30 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, T.J. McConnell has gone over 10.5 PTS 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 21st-most PTS of 30 teams (11.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.