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Miami HeatTrevor Keels
#3 · G · 6-3 · 215 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2022 · Rd 2, Pick 42
- College
- Duke
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 2.0 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Trevor Keels's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Sprain
Keels missed Miami's Summer League finale, marking a third consecutive game on the inactive list due to right knee soreness. Over two Las Vegas Summer League appearances, he averaged 23.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals in 27.2 minutes per showing.
Verdict
vs 1.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.2 PTS
L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 1.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
Last matchup — vs ATL
Apr 12, 2026
12thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
ATL allows 14.0 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 207 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, Trevor Keels has gone over 1.5 PTS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.