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Chicago BullsZach Collins
#12 · F-C · 6-9 · 240 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 10
- College
- Gonzaga
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 9.8 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutZach Collins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Illness
- Est. return:
- Nov 11, 2026
Collins left Wednesday's 135-105 loss to the Knicks with an illness, then missed Friday's practice due to the ailment. He's battling a respiratory issue that will force him to miss his third contest of the season. Noa Essengue, Leonard Miller and Patrick Williams could all see additional minutes versus the 76ers with Collins out.
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
9.0 PTS(×0.98 context)
L5 9.6 · L10 9.8 · med 10.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.0 · ceil 13.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Season10 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 9.5Current | 70% | 7/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day75%3/4Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
Last matchup — @ NYK
Nov 4, 2026
27thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
NYK allows 10.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 31 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Zach Collins has gone over 9.5 PTS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 70% across the full season. NYK has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 27th-most PTS of 30 teams (10.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 70%.