NFL FireFactor Accuracy
The settled ledger: for each of the last 10 completed slate days, the strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Every row links to the player’s full read.
Side
Showing all leans — 61 of 121 landed (50%).
Nov 5, 2026
1 of 5 landed- ✗Mark AndrewsO 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Bhayshul TutenO 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Parker WashingtonO 63.5 REC YDSgot 61
- ✗Zay FlowersO 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Derrick HenryU 1.5 RECgot 0
Nov 2, 2026
4 of 5 landed- ✓Jaxon Smith-NjigbaO 101.5 REC YDSgot 118
- ✓Luther Burden IIIO 53.5 REC YDSgot 56
- ✓Colston LovelandO 42.5 REC YDSgot 65
- ✗Sam DarnoldO 256.5 PASS YDSgot 188
- ✓AJ BarnerU 3.5 RECgot 2
Nov 1, 2026
16 of 40 landed- ✓Justin HerbertU 15.5 FSgot 9.78
- ✓Rhamondre StevensonU 88.5 RUSH YDSgot 82
- ✗Courtland SuttonU 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Kenneth Walker IIIU 6.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Tyler AllgeierU 2.5 RECgot 5
- ✗Hunter HenryO 11 FSgot 6
- ✗Bo NixU 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✗George PickensO 5.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Bhayshul TutenU 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Jaylen WaddleU 51.5 REC YDSgot 39
- ✓Blake CorumO 9 FSgot 13.3
- ✓Jahmyr GibbsU 5.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Troy FranklinU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Jaylen WarrenU 3.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Mark AndrewsO 3.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Travis KelceU 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✗Derrick HenryU 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Evan EngramU 2.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Jared GoffU 2.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✗Matthew StaffordO 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓Saquon BarkleyU 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Jameson WilliamsO 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Drake MayeO 217.5 PASS YDSgot 199
- ✗Elic AyomanorU 1.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Malik WashingtonO 48.5 REC YDSgot 40
- ✗Tre TuckerO 4.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Stefon DiggsO 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✗DK MetcalfO 3.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Aaron RodgersO 234.5 PASS YDSgot 172
- ✓Jerry JeudyU 3.5 RECgot 0
- ✗DeMario DouglasU 40.5 REC YDSgot 76
- ✗Kyren WilliamsO 58.5 RUSH YDSgot 56
- ✗Parker WashingtonO 4.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Geno SmithU 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✗Jonathan TaylorU 2.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Trey McBrideO 8.5 RECgot 7
- ✗Dak PrescottO 275.5 PASS YDSgot 195
- ✓Cam WardO 180.5 PASS YDSgot 304
- ✓Keenan AllenO 5.5 RECgot 7
- ✗Javonte WilliamsO 17.5 FSgot 6.7
Oct 29, 2026
1 of 4 landed- ✓Jordan LoveO 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✗Tetairoa McMillanO 72.5 REC YDSgot 58
- ✗Bryce YoungO 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✗Chuba HubbardU 19.5 FSgot 24.9
Oct 26, 2026
1 of 4 landed- ✗George PickensO 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Jake FergusonO 2.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Saquon BarkleyU 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Dak PrescottU 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
Oct 25, 2026
22 of 34 landed- ✓Jaxon Smith-NjigbaO 93.5 REC YDSgot 150
- ✓Amon-Ra St. BrownU 10.5 RECgot 9
- ✓Trey McBrideO 6.5 RECgot 10
- ✓Tre TuckerO 3.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Troy FranklinU 4 FSgot 0
- ✓Xavier HutchinsonU 3.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Jahmyr GibbsO 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Jared GoffU 338.5 PASS YDSgot 303
- ✗Bo NixU 214.5 PASS YDSgot 222
- ✗Elic AyomanorU 1.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Jordan LoveO 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✗Matthew StaffordO 263.5 PASS YDSgot 195
- ✗Courtland SuttonU 34.5 REC YDSgot 45
- ✗Jameson WilliamsU 53.5 REC YDSgot 91
- ✗Jahan DotsonO 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Kenneth Walker IIIU 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Geno SmithU 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✓Christian McCaffreyO 3.5 RECgot 6
- ✓Ashton JeantyO 3.5 RECgot 8
- ✓Jaylen WarrenO 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Jaylen WaddleU 51.5 REC YDSgot 48
- ✓Derrick HenryU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Tony PollardO 63.5 RUSH YDSgot 129
- ✗Malik WashingtonO 52.5 REC YDSgot 27
- ✓Mark AndrewsU 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Zay FlowersU 6.5 RECgot 8
- ✓Bryce YoungU 291.5 PASS YDSgot 163
- ✓Rashid ShaheedU 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Chuba HubbardU 19.5 FSgot 10
- ✓Michael WilsonU 11 FSgot 10.6
- ✗Wan'Dale RobinsonO 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Juwan JohnsonU 4.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Chase BrownU 11.5 FSgot 9.8
- ✗Keenan AllenO 5.5 RECgot 3
Oct 22, 2026
3 of 3 landed- ✓Hunter HenryO 35.5 REC YDSgot 71
- ✓Luther Burden IIIO 57.5 REC YDSgot 130
- ✓Rhamondre StevensonO 2.5 RECgot 5
Oct 19, 2026
0 of 1 landed- ✗Christian McCaffreyU 4.5 RECgot 9
Oct 18, 2026
13 of 25 landed- ✗Jordan LoveO 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✗Trey McBrideO 7.5 RECgot 7
- ✓Xavier HutchinsonU 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Bhayshul TutenO 1.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Kyren WilliamsO 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Tre TuckerO 3.5 RECgot 5
- ✗Dawson KnoxO 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Justin HerbertU 13.5 FSgot 9.76
- ✗Cam WardO 180.5 PASS YDSgot 102
- ✓James Cook IIIO 78.5 RUSH YDSgot 95
- ✗Dak PrescottO 278.5 PASS YDSgot 258
- ✓Josh AllenO 241.5 PASS YDSgot 255
- ✓Mark AndrewsU 4.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Aaron RodgersU 235.5 PASS YDSgot 253
- ✗Luther Burden IIIU 4.5 RECgot 8
- ✗Pat FreiermuthO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Trevor LawrenceU 227.5 PASS YDSgot 306
- ✗Javonte WilliamsO 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Jahan DotsonO 1.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Derrick HenryU 89.5 RUSH YDSgot 58
- ✓Juwan JohnsonU 4.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Jaylen WarrenU 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Jonathan TaylorO 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓TreVeyon HendersonU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Drake MayeU 208.5 PASS YDSgot 235
How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.