NFL FireFactor Accuracy
The settled ledger: for each of the last 10 completed slate days, the strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Every row links to the player’s full read.
Side
Showing all leans — 61 of 119 landed (51%).
Sep 21, 2026
1 of 3 landed- ✗Colby ParkinsonO 29.5 REC YDSgot 15
- ✗Davante AdamsU 4.5 RECgot 8
- ✓Kyren WilliamsO 15.5 FSgot 15.7
Sep 20, 2026
22 of 47 landed · 1 push- ✓Kenny GainwellO 1.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Colston LovelandO 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Jaxon Smith-NjigbaO 81.5 REC YDSgot 155
- ✗Cooper KuppO 23.5 REC YDSgot 20
- ✓Tyler AllgeierU 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Dak PrescottO 236.5 PASS YDSgot 279
- ✗Travis Etienne Jr.O 9 FSgot 5.1
- ✗Jakobi MeyersO 3.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Romeo DoubsO 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Christian McCaffreyO 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Tre' HarrisU 3.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Troy FranklinO 9.5 REC YDSgot 27
- ✗Woody MarksO 28.5 RUSH YDSgot 8
- ✓Rachaad WhiteO 22.5 RUSH YDSgot 43
- ✗George PickensO 40.5 REC YDSgot 40
- ✗Courtland SuttonO 3.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Trey McBrideO 60.5 REC YDSgot 41
- ✓Jake FergusonO 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓David MontgomeryU 63.5 RUSH YDSgot 10
- ✗Malik WashingtonU 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Michael WilsonO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Ladd McConkeyO 3.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Jonathan TaylorO 2.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Rashid ShaheedO 24.5 REC YDSgot 35
- ✓Travis KelceO 3.5 RECgot 9
- ✗AJ BarnerO 22.5 REC YDSgot 8
- ✓Stefon DiggsO 11 FSgot 21.7
- ✓DeMario DouglasU 3 RECgot 1
- ✗Cole KmetO 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Caleb WilliamsO 1.5 PASS TDgot 0
- ✓Justin HerbertU 17.5 FSgot 9.88
- ✗Rico DowdleO 9 FSgot 6.4
- ✓Keenan AllenU 9.5 FSgot 1.5
- ✓TreVeyon HendersonO 7.5 FSgot 13.6
- ✓Ashton JeantyU 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Trevor LawrenceO 223.5 PASS YDSgot 189
- –Xavier HutchinsonU 3 RECgot 3
- ✓Bo NixU 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓Emeka EgbukaU 11.5 FSgot 10.3
- ✗Bijan RobinsonO 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Jerry JeudyO 2.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Kyle MonangaiO 8 FSgot 7.8
- ✗Dalton SchultzU 5 RECgot 12
- ✓Justin JeffersonU 5.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Chase BrownO 17.5 FSgot 11.2
- ✗Aaron RodgersO 213.5 PASS YDSgot 187
- ✗Kyle Pitts Sr.O 5.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Jalen HurtsO 18.5 FSgot 18.16
Sep 17, 2026
5 of 7 landed- ✗Jameson WilliamsO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Dawson KnoxO 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Khalil ShakirO 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✓DJ MooreU 64.5 REC YDSgot 0
- ✓Amon-Ra St. BrownO 7.5 RECgot 9
- ✓Jared GoffO 1.5 PASS TDgot 4
- ✓James Cook IIIU 2.5 RECgot 1
Sep 14, 2026
2 of 4 landed- ✗Courtland SuttonO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓RJ HarveyO 2.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Troy FranklinO 3.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Travis KelceO 41.5 REC YDSgot 71
Sep 13, 2026
27 of 46 landed- ✗Kenny GainwellO 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Rachaad WhiteO 22.5 RUSH YDSgot 22
- ✗Jakobi MeyersO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Aaron RodgersU 3.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓Jacory Croskey-MerrittU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Khalil ShakirO 8.5 FSgot 9
- ✓Justin JeffersonU 94.5 REC YDSgot 92
- ✓Jalen NailorU 3.5 RECgot 3
- ✗George PickensO 67.5 REC YDSgot 28
- ✓Xavier HutchinsonO 2 RECgot 3
- ✓Woody MarksO 27.5 RUSH YDSgot 42
- ✓Trey McBrideO 5.5 RECgot 9
- ✓Brian Robinson Jr.O 19.5 RUSH YDSgot 31
- ✗Jake FergusonO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Dawson KnoxU 3.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Justin HerbertU 19.5 FSgot 14.26
- ✗James Cook IIIO 74.5 RUSH YDSgot 57
- ✓Malik WashingtonO 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Emeka EgbukaO 3.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Jonnu SmithO 2.5 REC YDSgot 50
- ✓Tre TuckerU 4.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Stefon DiggsO 9 FSgot 15.5
- ✓Dalton SchultzO 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Travis Etienne Jr.O 13 FSgot 14.8
- ✗Tre' HarrisU 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Jerry JeudyO 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Michael WilsonO 3.5 RECgot 5
- ✓D'Andre SwiftU 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Tyler AllgeierU 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Ladd McConkeyU 57.5 REC YDSgot 82
- ✓Kyle MonangaiO 32.5 RUSH YDSgot 100
- ✗David MontgomeryU 55.5 RUSH YDSgot 60
- ✗Kayshon BoutteO 21.5 REC YDSgot 21
- ✗Rico DowdleO 10 FSgot 4.1
- ✓Jonathan TaylorO 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Jaylen WarrenU 2.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Cole KmetO 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Keenan AllenU 9.5 FSgot 9.2
- ✗Kyle Pitts Sr.O 5.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Caleb WilliamsO 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✗Ashton JeantyU 61.5 RUSH YDSgot 102
- ✓Baker MayfieldU 230.5 PASS YDSgot 216
- ✓Colston LovelandU 4.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Saquon BarkleyU 82.5 RUSH YDSgot 83
- ✗Devin SingletaryU 1.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Dak PrescottO 266.5 PASS YDSgot 175
Sep 10, 2026
3 of 6 landed- ✗Colby ParkinsonO 18.5 REC YDSgot 6
- ✓Christian McCaffreyO 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Kyren WilliamsO 1.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Puka NacuaO 89.5 REC YDSgot 74
- ✓Davante AdamsU 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Matthew StaffordO 2.5 PASS TDgot 0
Sep 9, 2026
1 of 6 landed- ✗Cooper KuppO 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Jaxon Smith-NjigbaO 81.5 REC YDSgot 122
- ✗Romeo DoubsO 37.5 REC YDSgot 0
- ✗Rhamondre StevensonU 3.5 RECgot 5
- ✗AJ BarnerO 25.5 REC YDSgot 13
- ✗Rashid ShaheedO 32.5 REC YDSgot 4
How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.