Carolina Panthers

AJ Dillon Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

AJ Dillon has gone over 1.5 FS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boston College
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 1.5 FS · our line

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OutAJ Dillon isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

All of Dillon's touches came during Carolina's last drive of the game, when Chicago was leading by 22 points with less than four minutes remaining and more than content to let the Panthers run out the clock. Chuba Hubbard and 2024 second-rounder Jonathon Brooks project to remain clearly ahead of Dillon for carries going into Week 2.

Verdict

vs 1.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.4 FS(×1.02 context)

L5 1.5 · L10 1.5 · med 1.7

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
1.5Current	57%	4/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — FS per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%4/6Low

Next matchup — @ CLE

Sep 27, 2026

27thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

CLE allows 6.8 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, AJ Dillon has gone over 1.5 FS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most FS of 32 teams (6.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.