Las Vegas Raiders

Alex Bachman Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Alex Bachman has gone over 0.5 FS in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 1.1 FS · our line

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Verdict

vs 0.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Warm overFireFactor 42/100· model 76% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line76supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.1 FS

L5 1.1 · L10 1.1 · med 1.3

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.5 · ceil 1.7

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 103 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 203 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Season3 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	67%	2/3
	33%	1/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — FS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%2/2Low

Last matchup — @ HOU

Dec 21, 2025

32ndof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

HOU allows 7.1 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 3 games, Alex Bachman has gone over 0.5 FS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 32nd-most FS of 32 teams (7.1 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.