Jacksonville Jaguars

Ameer Abdullah Carries

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ameer Abdullah has gone over 1.5 CAR in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Nebraska
Experience: 13 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 1.8 CAR · our line

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OutAmeer Abdullah isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Abdullah, who is now heading into his age-33 campaign, suited up for 13 regular-season games with Indianapolis in 2025, totaling 14 carries for 60 yards and one touchdown and 16 catches for 99 yards (on 17 targets). He also handled 137 snaps on special teams for the Colts and racked up 563 kick-return yards. The veteran will compete with DeeJay Dallas and LeQuint Allen to carve out a similar role with the Jaguars.

Verdict

vs 1.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency8argues against it

Projection

2.0 CAR(×1.10 context)

L5 1.8 · L10 1.8 · med 1.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
1.5Current	50%	4/8
	13%	1/8
	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — CAR per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

Last matchup — @ HOU

Jan 4, 2026

8thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

HOU allows 11.9 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 31 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 8 games, Ameer Abdullah has gone over 1.5 CAR 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most CAR of 32 teams (11.9 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.