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Detroit LionsAmon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone over 15.5 FS in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 20.1 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Amon-Ra St. Brown's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Ribs Not Specified
St. Brown maintained his activity level from Wednesday's walkthrough as he navigates a rib injury, which was likely the reason for his brief time on the sideline this past Sunday against the Vikings. He thus has one more chance to get back to full Friday, or else he'll be at risk of entering the weekend with a designation for Sunday's game at Miami.
Verdict
vs 15.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 13/100· model 48% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
16.7 FS(×0.90 context)
L5 15.4 · L10 20.1 · med 15.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.7 · ceil 27.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
25%over
1 over · 3 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%Last 107 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 207 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season7 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 15.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Nov 8, 2026
29thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
MIA allows 7.9 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone over 15.5 FS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most FS of 32 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Amon-Ra St. Brown research
Amon-Ra St. Brown — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
St. Brown Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
St. Brown Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
St. Brown Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.