Washington Commanders

Antonio Williams Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Antonio Williams has gone over 3.5 TGT in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Clemson
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.0 TGT · our line

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OutAntonio Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Williams played only 26 of 70 offensive snaps (37.1 percent), which was fourth most among Commanders wide receivers in Sunday's loss. However, the rookie third-rounder ended up leading the Commanders in receiving yards while finishing second behind veteran Stefon Diggs in targets (nine). Williams was close to scoring on his first NFL catch for 16 yards late in the second quarter, falling short of the goal line before Jacory Croskey-Merritt punched the ball in on a one-yard rushing touchdown on the next play. Williams followed that up with a 33-yard catch early in the fourth quarter before hauling in a one-yard touchdown pass from Jayden Daniels late in the frame. It was an encouraging NFL debut from Williams, who may have benefited from the Eagles secondary focusing on limiting Terry McLaurin, though the former may have shown enough against Philadelphia to warrant additional playing time moving forward. The Commanders will stay on the road for their Week 2 clash against the Cowboys on Sept. 20.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

4.2 TGT(×1.06 context)

L5 4.0 · L10 4.0 · med 4.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 4.0 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
3.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ DAL

Sep 20, 2026

17thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

DAL allows 5.0 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, Antonio Williams has gone over 3.5 TGT 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.