New York Jets

Arian Smith Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Arian Smith has gone over 0.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 1.0 FS · our line

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OutArian Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Knee Not Specified
Est. return:: Oct 25, 2026

Per Rich Cimini of ESPN.com, Smith sustained a knee injury during the Jets' 20-17 overtime loss to the Packers on Sunday. The second-year wideout is required to miss the Jets' next four games at minimum, meaning he's eligible to return Week 7 against the Dolphins on Sunday, Oct. 25 at the earliest. The Jets now have four healthy wide receivers on the active roster after signing Malik McClain in a corresponding move.

Verdict

vs 0.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.6 FS(×0.84 context)

L5 0.3 · L10 1.1 · med 0.6

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2011 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Season11 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	55%	6/11
	30%	3/10
	9%	1/11
	0%	0/11

Last 11 games — FS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home80%4/5Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%5/10Low

Next matchup — @ DET

Sep 27, 2026

3rdof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

DET allows 14.3 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Arian Smith has gone over 0.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most FS of 32 teams (14.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.