Indianapolis Colts

Ashton Dulin Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ashton Dulin has gone over 0.5 REC in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Malone
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.0 REC · our line

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OutAshton Dulin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Dulin said his approach has been "attacking [the offseason] as if it's my first year, knowing that, that [No. 3] spot is open." After the Colts traded Michael Pittman to Pittsburgh, Stephen Holder of ESPN concurs Dulin has taken an early lead for the No. 3 role over Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Laquon Treadwell and rookie seventh-round pick Deion Burks and was a standout at minicamp. Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said Dulin has been moving around the offensive formation at practice and "can be really good for us this year on offense." The 29-year-old totaled a 5-106-0 line across 12 regular-season appearances in 2025 and has topped 200 receiving yards just once in his career.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.0 REC

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.4 · ceil 1.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Last matchup — @ HOU

Jan 4, 2026

32ndof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

HOU allows 2.6 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Ashton Dulin has gone over 0.5 REC 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 32nd-most REC of 32 teams (2.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.