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Arizona CardinalsBam Knight Carries
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Bam Knight has gone over 9.5 CAR in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- NC State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Carries · season avg 9.9 CAR · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBam Knight isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Concussion Concussion
- Est. return:
- Nov 15, 2026
After being concussed early in last Sunday's game against Dallas, Knight will miss at least one contest, as he remains in the league's protocol. With Jeremiyah Love (ankle) also sidelined, Tyler Allgeier projects to handle most of the backfield work, though it's a really tough road draw against a strong run defense.
Verdict
vs 9.5 CARCarriesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency50neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
9.2 CAR(×0.95 context)
L5 10.0 · L10 9.9 · med 10.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 7.0 · ceil 11.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Season10 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)
CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 9/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 9.5Current | 60% | 6/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%5/9Low
Next matchup — @ SEA
Nov 8, 2026
18thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs
SEA allows 10.9 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bam Knight has gone over 9.5 CAR 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most CAR of 32 teams (10.9 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 10.5 CAR- No-vig fair (over)
- 48.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 52.0%
Best Over
Caesars+102
-3.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-121
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-0.3%
Our model puts the over at 47.7% vs the market's no-vig 48.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Carries (CAR)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (10.5 CAR). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.
More Bam Knight research
Bam Knight — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Knight Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Knight Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Knight Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Knight Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.