Washington Commanders

Ben Sinnott Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ben Sinnott has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 8 decided games (13%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kansas State
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutBen Sinnott isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

New offensive coordinator David Blough is emphasizing versatility in his tight-end room, which includes Sinnott, Chig Okonkwo and John Bates, among others. Okonkwo is expected to get most of the pass-catching opportunities at the position. Sinnott hasn't shown much in that department, as the 2024 second-round pick has just 16 catches through 33 career regular-season games.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 90% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line90supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×1.10 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 108 games

13%over

1 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–47%

Last 208 games

13%over

1 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–47%

Season8 games

13%over

1 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–47%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away0%0/5Medium

Days since last game

3+ days14%1/7Low

Last matchup — @ PHI

Jan 4, 2026

30thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

PHI allows 0.1 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 33 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Ben Sinnott has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 8 decided times (13%) — versus 13% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 30th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 13%.