New York Jets

Brady Cook Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brady Cook has gone over 2.5 RUSH YDS in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Missouri
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 9.8 RUSH YDS · our line

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OutBrady Cook isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Cook got to audition as the Jets' starting quarterback down the stretch in 2025, but the undrafted rookie out of Missouri struggled to a 2:7 TD:INT across five appearances (four starts). The Jets traded for Smith and have already proclaimed the veteran to be their starting quarterback. They also drafted Klubnik out of Clemson, who has thrown the ball well in drills and impressed with his leadership skills. The team could still opt to bring in a veteran backup QB, but as things stand, Cook should get a chance during training camp and the preseason to compete for the top backup role against Klubnik and Bailey Zappe.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line40argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

8.9 RUSH YDS

L5 9.8 · L10 9.8 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.8 · ceil 13.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	80%	4/5
	60%	3/5
2.5Current	40%	2/5
	40%	2/5
	40%	2/5
	40%	2/5

Last 5 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Last matchup — @ BUF

Jan 4, 2026

4thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

BUF allows 21.4 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 5 games, Brady Cook has gone over 2.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 4th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (21.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 14.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.