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Pittsburgh SteelersBrandon Smith
#87 · WR · 6' 2" · 220 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 24.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrandon Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith had already been elevated from the practice squad thrice, so Saturday's move means he's eligible to suit up for the Steelers for the rest of the season. The Iowa product caught both of his targets for 24 yards against the Saints in Week 7. If Ben Skowronek (calf) cannot play Sunday, then Smith, Kaden Wetjen and Brandon Johnson would all be in line for more offensive snaps.
Verdict
vs 23.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
24.0 REC YDS
L5 24.0 · L10 24.0 · med 24.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 24.0 · ceil 24.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 23.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away100%1/1Low
Last matchup — @ NO
Oct 25, 2026
17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NO allows 44.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 1 games, Brandon Smith has gone over 23.5 REC YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.