Dallas Cowboys

Brevyn Spann-Ford Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brevyn Spann-Ford has gone over 1.5 TGT in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Minnesota
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.3 TGT · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutBrevyn Spann-Ford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Spann-Ford appeared in all 17 games for the Cowboys for the second straight season in 2025, so it's reasonable to anticipate he'll play a role in the offense again in 2026. However, he spent most of his snaps last year blocking, so there's no guarantee an increased snap count would translate to fantasy reliability.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency18argues against it

Projection

1.8 TGT(×1.10 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Season10 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	10/10
1.5Current	20%	2/10
	10%	1/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/3Low

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days22%2/9Low

Last matchup — @ NYG

Jan 4, 2026

9thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

NYG allows 3.8 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 28 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Brevyn Spann-Ford has gone over 1.5 TGT 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 9th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.8 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.