New Orleans Saints

Bryce Lance Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bryce Lance has gone over 3.5 TGT in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: North Dakota State
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.0 TGT · our line

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OutBryce Lance isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) on injured reserve and Chris Olave in and out of the game multiple times Sunday, Lance played 62 of 90 offensive snaps against Detroit. He ran 45 routes on Tyler Slough's 63 dropbacks and looks like the clear WR3 for New Orleans while Tyson recovers from a severe hamstring strain. However, Lance is deep down the list for opportunities and touches behind Olave, Juwan Johnson, Travis Etienne and Devaughn Vele, giving him minimal fantasy appeal outside of dynasty formats.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency100supports it

Projection

3.7 TGT(×0.92 context)

L5 4.0 · L10 4.0 · med 4.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 4.0 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
3.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ BAL

Sep 20, 2026

15thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

BAL allows 5.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, Bryce Lance has gone over 3.5 TGT 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 15th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.