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Carolina PanthersBryce Young
#9 · QB · 5' 10" · 204 lb · 19 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 17 of these 19 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 206.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBryce Young isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Panthers weren't particularly threatened by the Falcons at any point Sunday, so Young's robust passing yardage total was particularly noteworthy in that context. The 2023 first overall pick posted a second straight three-touchdown performance to open the season, connecting with Chuba Hubbard (three yards) and Darren Waller (seven, 12 yards) for his trio of scoring tosses. Young hooked up with eight different targets overall on the afternoon, and with 648 passing yards and six touchdowns versus one interception through the first pair of contests, he's clicking on all cylinders heading into a Week 3 road matchup against the Browns.
Verdict
vs 190.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
267.1 PASS YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 246.4 · L10 240.9 · med 235.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 132.4 · ceil 274.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 190.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 47% | 9/19 |
Situational splits
Over 190.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%6/9Low
Away40%4/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%10/18Medium
Next matchup — @ CLE
Sep 27, 2026
18thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CLE allows 213.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bryce Young has gone over 190.5 PASS YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 18th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (213.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 95.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.