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Tampa Bay BuccaneersCade Otton Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Cade Otton has gone over 5.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 6.1 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCade Otton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Four of the five passes Otton caught went for 10 yards or less, but he still led all Bucs pass catchers with five receptions while finishing third in receiving yards to Tez Johnson (49) and Chris Godwin (46). Otton played 58 of 65 offensive snaps (89.2 percent) and has served as security blanket in the passing game for Baker Mayfield. That said, Otton may be used more as a pass blocker Week 3 against the Vikings and their blitz-happy defense under defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Verdict
vs 5.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency36argues against it
Projection
5.1 TGT(×0.85 context)
L5 5.6 · L10 6.6 · med 5.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 7.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Season14 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 14/14 | ||
| 100% | 14/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 5.5Current | 43% | 6/14 | |
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 21% | 3/14 | ||
| 21% | 3/14 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away25%2/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 27, 2026
15thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
MIN allows 3.2 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cade Otton has gone over 5.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 43% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 15th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.
More Cade Otton research
Cade Otton — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Otton Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Otton Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Otton Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.