New York Giants

Calvin Austin III Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Calvin Austin III has gone over 3.5 REC in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Memphis
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.2 REC · our line

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OutCalvin Austin III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Austin appears to be running ahead of at least Smith-Schuster and Beckham, both of whom were brought in to bolster the team's wide-receiver depth in camp while Nabers and Slayton are sidelined. Mooney is expected to play primarily in the slot and Fields is a rookie third-round pick, so Austin has a clear path to playing time early in the season if Nabers takes time to ramp up in his recovery from a torn ACL that was surgically repaired Oct. 28.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency41neutral

Projection

3.5 REC(×1.07 context)

L5 3.4 · L10 3.2 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.6 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	9/9
	89%	8/9
	78%	7/9
3.5Current	44%	4/9
	11%	1/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%3/8Low

Last matchup — vs HOU

Jan 13, 2026

32ndof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

HOU allows 2.6 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Calvin Austin III has gone over 3.5 REC 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 32nd-most REC of 32 teams (2.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.