Miami Dolphins

Chris Bell Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Chris Bell has gone over 1.5 TGT in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Louisville
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.0 TGT · our line

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OutChris Bell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

It wasn't until the third quarter that Bell logged his first NFL catch, hauling in a 25-yard pass from Malik Willis to keep the drive going and ending with a 14-yard touchdown run by the latter two plays later. The rookie wideout saw the field for 29 of the Dolphins' 56 offensive snaps (51.2 percent), which was third most among Miami's wide receivers behind Malik Washington (55) and fellow rookie Caleb Douglas (51). It was encouraging to see Bell on the field, seeing as he tore his ACL last December, and his snap count should steadily increase as his conditioning improves. Bell and the Dolphins face a tough Week 2 matchup Sept. 20 against a 49ers defense that limited last year's MVP Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense to just seven points Week 1.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency100supports it

Projection

1.8 TGT(×0.92 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 2.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
1.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ SF

Sep 20, 2026

3rdof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

SF allows 7.5 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 1 games, Chris Bell has gone over 1.5 TGT 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most TGT of 32 teams (7.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.