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Green Bay PackersChris Brooks
#30 · RB · 6' 1" · 219 lb · 6 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 4 of these 6 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- BYU
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 22.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChris Brooks isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Brooks was on the field for 27 of the Packers' 59 offensive snaps in Week 2, with Kaleb Johnson and MarShawn Lloyd each logging 16. However, Brooks ceded carries to both players, and he tied Lloyd with two targets. The 26-year-old has totaled 40 yards off 11 carries (3.6 YPC), adding one catch for 15 yards in his two regular-season appearances in 2026. While Josh Jacobs (personal) sits on the Commissioner's Exempt List, there will continue to be opportunities for Brooks, Lloyd and Johnson, though it appears head coach Matt LaFleur is content with a timeshare, lowering the ceiling for all of them moving ahead, including the Week 3 meeting with Atlanta.
Verdict
vs 16.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
25.2 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 26.4 · L10 22.0 · med 16.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.0 · ceil 29.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 16.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs ATL
Sep 25, 2026
27thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
ATL allows 32.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Chris Brooks has gone over 16.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (32.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 16.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.4%
Best Over
DraftKings-107
-4.0% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-5.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+13.8%
Our model puts the over at 63.5% vs the market's no-vig 49.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (16.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.