Baltimore Ravens

Chris Moore Targets

Stats updated: Dec 25, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Chris Moore has gone over 4.5 TGT in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Cincinnati
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.0 TGT · our line

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OutChris Moore isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Reuniting with Baltimore, which drafted him in the fourth round of the 2016 NFL Draft, Moore caught 11 of 23 targets for 207 yards and one touchdown in 2025. The 33-year-old is expected to compete for a spot on the Ravens' active roster as the team's offseason program continues.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line46neutral

Consistency47neutral

Projection

4.2 TGT

L5 4.0 · L10 4.0 · med 5.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.8 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 105 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 205 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Season5 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	5/5
	80%	4/5
	60%	3/5
4.5Current	60%	3/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days75%3/4Low

Last matchup — @ MIA

Nov 16, 2025

29thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

MIA allows 4.9 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 54 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Chris Moore has gone over 4.5 TGT 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.