Loading…
San Francisco 49ersChristian Kirk
#13 · WR · 5' 11" · 200 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 39.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Christian Kirk's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Calf Not Specified
With Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR) out for the season, the 49ers also were without Mike Evans (quadriceps) and rookie second-round pick De'Zhaun Stribling (hamstring) on Monday, though both Stribling and Kirk appeared to be operating at at least three-quarters speed. Kirk now has missed a week of practice, but his activity level to begin this week indicates he's likely to mix back into drills in the near future.
Verdict
vs 25.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
47.8 REC YDS(×1.05 context)
L5 51.2 · L10 39.7 · med 25.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 17.2 · ceil 56.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 25.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 25.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%5/9Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Mac Jones out+22.9 REC YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
46.6 REC YDS
57% over 25.5
With (3g)
23.7 REC YDS
33% over 25.5
Deebo Samuel out+18.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (6g)
47.0 REC YDS
67% over 25.5
With (4g)
28.8 REC YDS
25% over 25.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 18, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 36.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Christian Kirk has gone over 25.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 39.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.