Loading…
San Francisco 49ersChristian McCaffrey
#23 · RB · 5' 11" · 210 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Stanford
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 70.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 56.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
57.0 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 72.6 · L10 68.9 · med 63.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 48.4 · ceil 99.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 11/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 56.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 44% | 8/18 |
Situational splits
Over 56.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Mac Jones out+9.5 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (10g)
74.2 RUSH YDS
60% over 56.5
With (8g)
64.8 RUSH YDS
38% over 56.5
Deebo Samuel out+26.4 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
80.3 RUSH YDS
55% over 56.5
With (7g)
53.9 RUSH YDS
43% over 56.5
Last matchup — @ SEA
Jan 18, 2026
32ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
SEA allows 34.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 41 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Christian McCaffrey has gone over 56.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (34.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 33.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.