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San Francisco 49ersChristian McCaffrey
#23 · RB · 5' 11" · 210 lb · 19 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 17 of these 19 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Stanford
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 67.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChristian McCaffrey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McCaffrey opened the scoring with a one-yard touchdown run in the first quarter and added another one-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. The two-touchdown performance brought McCaffrey's career regular-season touchdown total up to 100. Exactly half of those touchdowns have come with the 49ers, as McCaffrey joins Marshall Faulk and Randy Moss as the only players to score at least 50 touchdowns apiece for multiple teams, per ESPN Insights. McCaffrey should continue to contribute as both a runner and a pass catcher in Week 3 against the Cardinals.
Verdict
vs 54.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency17argues against it
Projection
55.1 RUSH YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 39.4 · L10 66.9 · med 60.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 42.8 · ceil 95.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 58% | 11/19 | ||
| 54.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 42% | 8/19 |
Situational splits
Over 54.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%9/18Medium
Next matchup — vs ARI
Sep 27, 2026
18thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
ARI allows 41.8 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Christian McCaffrey has gone over 54.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (41.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 33.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 62.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.1%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet-115
-4.8% EV
Best Under
Caesars-107
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-0.2%
Our model puts the over at 50.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (61.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.