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Carolina PanthersChuba Hubbard
#30 · RB · 6' 1" · 210 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma State
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 84.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChuba Hubbard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Hubbard was able to log his usual hefty workload despite Carolina trailing for large swaths of the contest, and the veteran back added his fifth rushing touchdown of the campaign on a one-yard run on the first play of the second quarter. He also led the Panthers in receptions with a season-high figure, and he now has seven total scores in seven games. Hubbard averaged under 4.0 yards per carry for the first time this season, but he's still clocking 4.6 yards per tote heading into a Week 9 home matchup against the Broncos on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Verdict
vs 81.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency43neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
85.8 RUSH YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 91.6 · L10 84.5 · med 81.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 53.0 · ceil 120.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 81.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 81.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs DEN
Nov 8, 2026
21stof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
DEN allows 42.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 19 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Chuba Hubbard has gone over 81.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 21st-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (42.0 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 28.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 69.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
BetRivers-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+3.0%
Our model puts the over at 53.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (69.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.