Los Angeles Rams

Colby Parkinson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Colby Parkinson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Stanford
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.7 REC TD · our line

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OutColby Parkinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

During the 2025 regular season, Parkinson made his mark by catching 43 of his 56 targets for 408 yards and eight TDs in 15 contests. Though Los Angeles' current TE room is crowded, with Tyler Higbee, Terrance Ferguson, Max Klare and Davis Allen also in the mix, DaSilva relays that Parkinson should be the Rams' primary inline tight end once again and will almost always be on the field when the team deploys TE-heavy sets. In that context, the 27-year-old retains a modest degree of fantasy utility in a passing attack that continues to feature high-volume WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, in particular if Parkinson retains a key red-zone role in 2026.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.6 REC TD(×1.10 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2012 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Season12 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	6/12
	17%	2/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%3/3Low

Away33%3/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days55%6/11Low

Last matchup — @ SEA

Jan 25, 2026

21stof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

SEA allows 0.2 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Colby Parkinson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 21st-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.