New York Giants

Darnell Mooney Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Darnell Mooney has gone over 5.5 FS in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tulane
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 6.1 FS · our line

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OutDarnell Mooney isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mooney was limited to 443 receiving yards with the Falcons in 2025, but he has recorded at least 992 receiving yards in two of his six NFL regular seasons. Slot receiver Wan'Dale Robinson, who signed with the Titans in free agency, led the Giants with 1,014 receiving yards in 2025. Mooney seems to have a defined role lined up while Darius Slayton (abdomen), Calvin Austin, Malachi Fields, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Odell Beckham compete for reps on the outside opposite Malik Nabers (knee), who is expected to reclaim a starting role once healthy.

Verdict

vs 5.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

5.2 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 4.6 · L10 6.0 · med 5.3

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 3.0 · ceil 8.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 1010 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 2012 games

45%over

5 over · 6 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%

Season12 games

45%over

5 over · 6 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	83%	10/12
	75%	9/12
	64%	7/11
5.5Current	45%	5/11
	27%	3/11
	25%	3/12
	17%	2/12

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away57%4/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%5/10Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jaxson Dart out+3.7 FS when he sits

Without (9g)

7.0 FS

63% over 5.5

With (3g)

3.3 FS

0% over 5.5

Last matchup — vs NO

Jan 4, 2026

23rdof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

NO allows 8.7 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 55 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Darnell Mooney has gone over 5.5 FS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 45% across the full season. NO has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 23rd-most FS of 32 teams (8.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.