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Carolina PanthersDarren Waller Targets
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Darren Waller has gone over 3.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia Tech
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 4.6 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDarren Waller isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Waller has been hit or miss from a fantasy perspective this season, with two touchdown grabs in Week 2 in Atlanta and a 50-yard TD catch in Week 7 against the Buccaneers serving as the notable performances. Otherwise, he has one 50-yard effort in his five other appearances, sitting on a 15-209-3 line on 25 targets on the season. Waller next takes aim at the tough Broncos defense this coming Sunday.
Verdict
vs 3.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line78supports it
Consistency33argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
6.2 TGT(×1.20 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 4.7 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 11/11 | ||
| 100% | 11/11 | ||
| 100% | 11/11 | ||
| 3.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 18% | 2/11 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 15, 2026
8thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
NO allows 4.2 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Darren Waller has gone over 3.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 8th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.2 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.
More Darren Waller research
Darren Waller — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Waller Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Waller Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Waller Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.