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Tampa Bay BuccaneersDavid Sills V
#87 · WR · 6' 3" · 211 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- West Virginia
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 22.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDavid Sills V isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Undisclosed Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Oct 8, 2026
Sills appears to have picked up an undisclosed injury at some point during the preseason. The wide receiver played in one of the team's preseason contests, reeling in one of two targets for minus-1 yard. Sills will now be forced to miss at least four contests while on IR, and the earliest he can return to action is Week 5 against the Cowboys on Oct. 8.
Verdict
vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
29.1 REC YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 29.2 · L10 22.5 · med 14.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 9.8 · ceil 28.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 27, 2026
4thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIN allows 62.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, David Sills V has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (62.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 23.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.